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Just How Crowded Is The "Long Dollar" Trade? The Answer In One Chart

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:06:20 GMT

Until last night's Trump statement that the US dollar is overvalued, it was smooth sailing for Wall Street's momentum chasers, who happily piled into what until recently was Wall Street's most crowded trade. How crowded?

For the latest answer, we go to the latest just released monthly Fund Managers Survey conducted by BofA's Michael Hartnett who shows that according to Wall Streeters themselves, the dollar is the most crowded trade by orders of magnitude. In fact, in January the number of respondents who said the "Long USD" is the most crowded trade has risen from 35% in December to a whopping 47%, the highest response rate in the last few years of the survey. Far behind, in second and third place, are "short government bonds" and "long high quality/minimum vol" both at 11%.

What makes this observation paradoxical is how reflexive it is, because in the same report BofA writes that contrarians note "long US dollar seen as most crowded trade by a country mile", and adds that the percentage of investors who think USD is overvalued is the highest in over a decade, or since Nov’06 (net 22%).

Still, they refuse to sell... until now. Because now that the president-elect has publicly taken the other side of the trade, we urge readers to take a second look at RCB's warning that the "Pain Trade", i.e. the inversion of Long-USD positions, has begun.

3 Key Metrics for Kinder Morgan Inc. Investors to Focus On This Week

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:00:00 GMT

The natural gas pipeline giant reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday after the market closes.

Trump Trounces Yellen - Dollar Dumps, Erases All Post-Fed Gains

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:56:08 GMT

It appears The Donald is stronger than The Fed (for now). The president-elect's comments that the dollar is "too strong" have accelerated the weakness from his press conference last week, and erased all the "well the dollar is up because the US economy is so strong" gains in the greenback since The Fed hiked interest rates for the second time in a decade...

The Dollar however has a long way to go yet...

Bonds & Bullion Are Surging As Small Caps Give Up 2017 Gains

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:50:16 GMT

Following Friday's plunge in bond and bullion prices, dollar weakness (on Trump's comments), Brexit uncertainty, and looming inauguration appear to have sent a ripple of anxiety through capital markets sending Treasury yields tumbling (6-8bps lower across the curve), gold prices soaring (above $1215), and stocks tumbling (Small Caps back in the red for 2017)...

And stocks sinking once again...

Wal-Mart Has a New Plan to Take on Amazon

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:58:00 GMT

The company has the right idea, but it's one that lots of retailers have struggled with.

How Limelight Networks, Inc. Gained 75% in 2016

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:44:00 GMT

The content delivery network specialist settled a long-running patent feud with larger rival Akamai, and rebuilt its balance sheet with funds formerly reserved for litigation costs.

Why Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc. Stock Rocketed 412% Upwards in 2016

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:44:00 GMT

Positive clinical trial made this company one of last year's winning stocks.

This Industrial Stock Gained 32% in 2016. Is There Room to Run in 2017?

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:44:00 GMT

It promises to be a better year for industrial companies, but is the good news already priced into stocks in the sector?

These Moves Could Save You Thousands in 2017

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:36:00 GMT

Saving money means making sacrifices and being smart, but that does not always have to hurt.

J.C. Penney's Turnaround Is in Trouble: How Will It React?

via Motley Fool Headlines by on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:33:00 GMT

J.C. Penney may need to follow Macy's and Sears by closing many stores unless it can get its comp sales growing again in 2017.

New ABC / WaPo Poll Shows Drop In Trump Favorabilty Through Aggressive "Oversamples"

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:26:54 GMT

In the month leaded up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see "New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through 'Oversamples'" and "ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary's "Lead" Shrinks To 2-Points"). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump's favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious "oversamples" we've seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans...

ABC Poll

...while the CNN poll showed a similar 8-point advantage for Democrats with only 24% of respondents identifying as Republicans.

"A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party.

Of course, as we've repeatedly pointed out, these sampling mixes couldn't be further from reality.

Polling

And while a quick 2 second review of the methodology of these polls immediately reveals their obvious bias, here are some of the results.

ABC latched on to the conclusion that Trump is just being super mean to the media...

57% of Americans see Donald Trump’s treatment of the news media as unfair in new @ABC News/WaPo poll: https://t.co/EL88zg0105

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) January 17, 2017

Even though they found that the media is treating him "fairly."

Meanwhile, ABC/Wapo found that President-elect Trump is the least popular candidate to take the White House in modern history, with a 40% approval rating.

Moreover, his cabinet picks were equally disliked by ABC/Wapo respondents.

In conclusion:

The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls. They are rigged just like before.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 17, 2017

Apple Hikes UK App Store Prices By 20% In Response To Plunging Pound

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:23:57 GMT

Ahead of Theresa May's speech, which catalyzed the biggest jump in sterling since 2008, the signs were already there that the British currency is facing upward pressure when December U.K. inflation was reported to have accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years, driven by the tumbling pound which drove a surge in import costs. Consumer-price growth increased to 1.6 percent, the highest since July 2014, from 1.2 percent in November, and above the 1.4% consensus estimte. A separate report showed the cost of imports soared at the fastest annual rate in more than five years according to Bloomberg.

On Monday, BOE's Mark Carney warned on Monday that rapidly accelerating inflation will put the brakes on consumer spending this year following sterling’s 18 percent depreciation since the Brexit vote. The BOE, which will publish new projections next month, currently expects inflation to breach its 2 percent target soon. It sees the rate pushing close to 3 percent by the end of the year, while some forecasters see it even higher than that. “This is very much the thin end of the wedge and there is plenty more upside to come over the coming months,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank. “We suspect that the bank will turn more hawkish.” It is unclear if that means that the BOE may consider hiking: according to Goldman, not only will the BOE not raise rates for the next two years, but will actually engage in further easing in the not too distant future.

Meanwhile, sterling's weakness is affecting everything from groceries to technology. Case in point Apple, which overnight backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs. As Sky News notes, the move will mean that for the first time there will be price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

Previously, the company revealed in October that its new MacBook Pro, Macbook Air and Mac Mini would rise in price by up to a quarter. Sterling's slump was cited as the core reason at the time.

The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to earn less from an app purchased in the UK. The firm said: "Price tiers on the App Store are set internationally on the basis of several factors, including currency exchange rates, business practices, taxes, and the cost of doing business. These factors vary from region to region and over time."

The price rises will take effect within a week unless a specific app developer actively chooses to move to a lower pricing structure.

Apple made the announcement almost two weeks after it revealed the App Store had generated more than $20bn (£16bn) in revenue for developers last year - up 40% on 2015. Pokemon Go was the big success story.

Rising prices are set to become the norm for UK consumers over the coming months as everyday goods become more expensive amid pressure on retailers to pass on higher import costs. The scenario was reflected in the latest inflation figures which showed an impact from fuel and higher food and air fares while factory gate data suggested further price pressure is on the way with input costs growing almost 16% annually last month.

The car industry has been among the other voices warning of rising costs for UK consumers ahead, reflecting demands in their European supply chain despite benefits from a weaker pound which make their vehicles more competitive abroad.

The UK's suddenly surging inflation means that, unless something drastically changes in the coming months, the BOE's "reaction function" will be severely constrained, with increasingly more politicians, prodded by their angry constituency, demanding that Carney to halt the surging costs, in the process leading to even more selling across global rate products.

Putin Warns Of "Maidan-Style" Attempt To Delegitimize Trump; Calls Trump Dossier Creators "Worse Than Prostitutes"

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:17:53 GMT

Warning that a "soft coup" is being waged against Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he sees attempts in the United States to "delegitimize" US President-elect Donald Trump using "Maidan-style" methods previously used in Ukraine, where readers will recall president Yanukovich was ousted in 2014 following a violent coup, which many suspect was conducted under the auspices of the US State Department and assorted US intelligence operations.

Putin said he doesn’t believe that Donald Trump met with prostitutes in Russia, calling the accusations part of a campaign to undermine the election result, and suggested that an internal political struggle is underway in the United States despite the fact that the presidential election is over, and added that reports of alleged Russian dossier on Trump are fake as "our security services do not chase every US billionaire."

Unsubstantiated allegations made against Trump are “obvious fabrications,” Putin told reporters in the Kremlin on Tuesday. “People who order fakes of the type now circulating against the U.S. president-elect, who concoct them and use them in a political battle, are worse than prostitutes because they don’t have any moral boundaries at all,” he said.

The Russian president, cited by BBG, said that Trump wasn’t a politician when he visited Moscow in the past and Russian officials weren’t aware that he held any political ambitions.

Putin did not stop there and said that the compromising report compiled on Trump was a "hoax", and said those who ordered the Trump dossier are "worse than prostitutes."

Putin, who reiterated he had never met Trump, said he hoped that Moscow and Washington could eventually get their troubled relations back to normal, adding he has no reasons to "attack or defend him."

"I don't know Mr. Trump personally, I have never met him and don't know what he will do on the international arena. So I have no grounds to attack him or criticize him for anything, or protect him or whatever," Putin said.

Putin noted that there is a category of people who leave without saying goodbye, "out of respect for the present situation," while others say goodbye all the time, but do not go away. "The outgoing administration, in my opinion, belongs to the second category," he said.

Civil War Two Is Underway - What's Left In The CIA's Bag Of Tricks?

via by Tyler Durden on Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:07:01 GMT

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

I dunno about you, but I rather enjoy watching the praetorian Deep State go batshit crazy as the day of Trump’s apotheosis approacheth. I imagine a lot of men and women running down the halls of Langley and the Pentagon and a hundred other secret operational redoubts with their hair on fire, wondering how on earth they can neutralize the fucker in the four days remaining.

What’s left in their trick-bag? Bake a poison cheesecake for the inaugural lunch? CIA Chief John Brennan has been reduced to blowing raspberries at the incoming president. Maybe some code cowboys In the Utah NSA fortress can find a way to crash all the markets on Friday as an inauguration present. What does it take? A few strategic HFT spoofs? There will be lots of police sharpshooters on the DC rooftops that day. What might go wrong?

Civil War Two is underway, with an interesting echo of Civil War One: Trump dissed Civil Rights sacred icon Georgia congressman John Lewis, descendant of slaves, after said icon castigated Trump as “not a legitimate president.” That now prompts a congressional walk-out of the swearing-in ceremony. The New York Times is acting like a Manhattan socialite in a divorce proceeding, with fresh hysterics every day, reminding readers in a front-page story on Monday that “[Martin Luther] King’s birthday falls within days of the birthdays of two Confederate generals, Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson.” Jeez! Who you gonna call? Ghostbusters?

There’s not much Trump can do until Friday noon except tweet out his tweets, but one can’t help but wonder what the Deep State can do after that magic moment passes. I’ve maintained for nearly a year that, if elected, Trump would be removed by a coup d’état within sixty days of assuming office, and I still think that’s a pretty good call — though I hope it doesn’t come to that, of course. My view of this was only confirmed by Trump’s performance at last week’s press conference, which seemed, shall we say, a little light on presidential decorum.

Perhaps it befits this particular Deep State to go down in the manner of an opéra bouffe. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce, old Karl Marx observed. What does the Union stand for this time? The rights of former SEC employees to sell their services to CitiBank? The rights of competing pharma companies to jack the price of insulin up from $20 to $250 a vial? The rights of DIA subcontractors to sell Semtex plastic explosives to the “moderate” jihadis of the Middle East?

So the theme of the moment is that Donald Trump is a bigger crook than the servants and vassals of the Deep State. He ran for president so he could sell more steaks and whiskey under the Trump brand. He’s in violation of the emoluments clause in the constitution. Well, I’m not aware that George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, or Andrew Jackson put their slaves in a blind trust after they became president. Anyway, at this point in our history, nobody can beat the Deep State for financial turpitude, certainly not a single real estate and hotel magnate.

I guess the big question is whether the Deep State — and, yes, Virginia, the Deep State does exist, unlike Santa Claus — will tear the country apart in the attempt to defend all its ill-gotten perquisites and privileges. The public at large is restive, eager to get on with the job of deconstructing the matrix of racketeering that adds up to the immiserating culture we live in, a society where health insurance company presidents make $40 million a year while ordinary people lose their homes because a $5,000-deductible health insurance policy doesn’t cover the cost of treating a routine tonsillectomy.

I didn’t vote for the Cheeto-head sonofabitch, but it will be interesting to see what he does between noon and six p.m. Friday, if he survives the festivities.

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