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Bank of America's Stock in 2016: A Year in Review
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:42:00 GMT
Sunoco LP's Stock Got Hammered in 2016. Is the Worst Over?
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:42:00 GMT
Why Ionis Pharmaceuticals Shares Fell by 22.8% in 2016
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:41:00 GMT
"Disappointed" Fiat-Chrysler Responds To EPA Accusations
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:24:18 GMT
Just days after Fiat-Chrysler's (FCA) commitment to Trump, the Obama administration's EPA has, as we previously noted, accused the carmaker of cheating on di4esel emissions tests (a la Volkswagen). FCA just responded, denying the charges.
Fiat Chrsyler press release:
FCA US is disappointed that the EPA has chosen to issue a notice of violation with respect to the emissions control technology employed in the company's 2014-16 model year light duty 3.0-liter diesel engines.
FCA US intends to work with the incoming administration to present its case and resolve this matter fairly and equitably and to assure the EPA and FCA US customers that the company's diesel-powered vehicles meet all applicable regulatory requirements.
FCA US diesel engines are equipped with state-of-the-art emission control systems hardware, including selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Every auto manufacturer must employ various strategies to control tailpipe emissions in order to balance EPA's regulatory requirements for low nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and requirements for engine durability and performance, safety and fuel efficiency. FCA US believes that its emission control systems meet the applicable requirements.
FCA US has spent months providing voluminous information in response to requests from EPA and other governmental authorities and has sought to explain its emissions control technology to EPA representatives. FCA US has proposed a number of actions to address EPA's concerns, including developing extensive software changes to our emissions control strategies that could be implemented in these vehicles immediately to further improve emissions performance.
FCA US looks forward to the opportunity to meet with the EPA's enforcement division and representatives of the new administration to demonstrate that FCA US's emissions control strategies are properly justified and thus are not "defeat devices" under applicable regulations and to resolve this matter expeditiously.
Shares are halted down 16% for now...
Gold Leads As Dow Dive Erases 2017 Gains
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:18:35 GMT
VIX is spiking (admittedly to just above 12) as US equity markets are tumbling following the path of the USD (biggest drop in 6 months). The Dow just gave up all its 2017 gains (with Small Caps -0.8% on the year) as gold leads all asset classes.
Desk chatter is that this comment from The Fed sparked the initial anxiety...
- HARKER: WHEN RATES AT 1%, NEED TO LOOK AT UNWINDING BAL SHEET
This is The Dow's biggest drop in 3 months...
Gold is leading the way for 2017...
Think The Aftermath Of The Election Was Bad? Wait Until Inauguration Day
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:10:38 GMT
After Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton and was elected the next president of the United States, all hell broke loose in America. Stars took to the airwaves to weep and rend their hair. Schools actually shut down and offered counseling. Protests blocked roadways. Some of the protests devolved into riots, and organizations funded by George Soros added fuel to those fires.
Violence and hatred spread like a pandemic virus.
Then, things settled down, although the defeated liberals were still unhappy. Cities went back to normal, and anti-Trump vitriol returned mainly to its verbal form, (with a few horrifying exceptions, discussed below.)
But maybe they were just saving their energy for the inauguration on the 20th.
People have been talking about making Inauguration Day the biggest protest in the history of the United States, but plans seem to be escalating. (Go here to get a free guide that will help you to prepare for unrest if it comes your way. You’ll also get updates on the fluid situation. )
Some people are planning joking about a real life Purge, modeled after the movies of the same name. In the movies, for a 12 hour period every year, all bets are off. All laws are suspended. All emergency services are canceled. People are completely free to do whatever they want, including to seek retribution and vengeance from anyone who has wronged them. Lots of folks lock down and try to hang in until morning, while others go out for a gleeful night of murder, vandalism, and mayhem.
Piper McGowan of The Daily Sheeple found a motherlode of unsettling tweets from liberals who seem ready to go out on Inauguration and do their own version of a Purge. She wrote:
…apparently lots of people in the Twitterverse can, and many have declared that Trump’s inauguration day on January 20, 2017, will be a real life Purge.
Some of these statements come complete with cute little weapon icons like swords and knives.
What’s eerie about this (besides all of it) is that the first Purge was the lowest budget film to hit the top of the box office charts since 1988 grossing $90 million. It was a huge commercial success. People loved it, spawning two sequels so far.
The third one that came out in July 2016 called The Purge: Election Year had a president character who just so happened to play it a lot like Trump in what people in the film claim was an “accident” (yeah right) — complete with the tagline “Keep America Great.”
Go check out the full article to see the Tweets. There are dozens, if not hundreds, just like them.
While this is supposed to be a hilarious joke, I think there’s a little bit of seriousness in it.
The left has done everything possible to delegitimize Trump’s presidency before it even begins. The aftermath of the election was violent and bloody. Many people since have been violently beaten for being Trump supporters. Heck, some got beaten just for being white, like the special needs young man who was forced to say “F*ck white people” and “F*ck Trump” during a horrifying live-streamed torture session.
Do you honestly think that things will just magically settle down after the Inauguration?
You need to get prepared for the possibility that the 20th and the 21st could be some of the most violent days that America has ever faced.
Go here to get a free bundle of e-books and checklists to help you get prepped. Titles include How to Stay Safe When Chaos Erupts in America and A Quick-Start Guide for New Preppers Who Want to be Ready RIGHT NOW. These won’t cost you a penny but don’t delay. If you wait until the last minute to prepare, you’ll be out there in the thick of things, when everyone else has the same idea.
I don’t think that most people are going to go full-on Purge, but I do expect some riots. Heck, some people are seriously talking about an Inauguration Day revolution.
The trouble with protests and riots is that things can escalate quickly and dramatically. If things go south, your family depends on you to be ready.
Better Buy: Facebook, Inc. vs. Twitter
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:28:00 GMT
Inherited IRAs: What You Need to Know
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:22:00 GMT
Sunrun Finds Big-Name Partner in National Grid
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:10:00 GMT
3 Medicare Myths - Debunked!
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 16:04:00 GMT
RBC Explains Why The Market Is Dumping, Adds "This Is Not The Big Short"... Yet
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:53:38 GMT
Having yesterday revealed what he believes is the single biggest risk to the buyside in general, and hedge funds in particular, in today's market (the answer, for those who missed it, is the strong dollar suddenly turning weak, as it is continues to do today), here is the follow-up note from RBC's Charlie McElliggott, explaining where we stand now.
* * *
Where We Stand
As laid-out in yesterday’s Big Picture note “THE SINGLE LARGEST MACRO INPUT RISK TO THE BUYSIDE,” as asymmetrically ‘long US Dollar’ positioning ‘tips over,’ so too should we expect a drawdown on consensual macro and thematic-equity trades.
Tactical cases are everywhere for an extension / acceleration of mean-reversion trades, largely based-upon positioning excess and reversing technicals.
As the case has been built over the past month and a half in the “RBC Big Picture,” reversal strategies are a regular feature in the January landscape—especially after such clear trend developed in the back half of ’16 with regards to ‘reflation—those being:’
- Long USD, stocks, small cap / domestically levered, value factor, cyclicals beta, inflation, high tax rate, HY / high beta credit (CCC over BB), CNH, curve steepeners, copper
- Short USTs / ED$ / duration, euro, yen, EMFX / EM eq / EM bonds, growth, defensives, low beta / low vol, VIX, gold
As some of the reversion was ‘pre-traded’ in the back-half of Dec, it made sense to us that this January wouldn’t be an outright repeat of the violent VaR shocks experienced in a number of recent Januarys as ‘momentum’ reversed hard and everything from ‘bonds vs stocks’ to equity factors turned upside-down.
That said…the driver for the acceleration of ‘reversal trades’ yesterday into the overnight was the Barnum-esque circus of a press conference yesterday from President-elect Trump.
Expectations were built for a more “Presidential” tone, with more granular ‘policy talk’--especially as it pertained to the nuances of the tax plan, fiscal stimulus, and the Obamacare unwind. Needless to say, we got a “goat rodeo” instead, and it spooked a lot of the TACTICALLY long reflation crowd.
Reflationary growth expectations have clearly been a significant driver of the USD ‘bull case’—but the tax component (overseas profits $ repatriation / border-adjusted tax (BAT) system theoretically driving ~15% currency appreciation) has been a massive-input as well. As stated yesterday, any resetting of expectations there (“watering down” of the BAT) will see a lower Dollar concurrently.
Sure, spec net Dollar positioning is at 1 year highs. But even more than ‘just’ the cumulative FX positioning itself is the observation that the Dollar is the “grand unifying asset” of the “domestic growth / reflation” trade theme. So in that sense, “long USD” is a factor embedded in nearly every one of the aforementioned popular macro longs and shorts.
The idea I have to again stress here is this: nearly all of the gains from these “reflation” trades were “last year’s business.” Point being, YTD, most of these trades are moving from “not great” to now approaching “REAL negative PNL.” As risk-managers are highly-sensitive to such start of year drawdowns and we near the ever-present “tight stops,” you have to BOLO for capitulatory flows (perhaps as best expressed by yesterday’s mega-impressive $20B 10 year UST reopening auction which saw a blistering 70% indirect bid, which caused a very significant squeeze in USTs across boards).
It should be noted that thus far, the ‘least’ relatively effected trades have been the thematic and factor trades within the equities-complex. Reasons for this are ‘three-fold’:
- The very tactical nature of discretionary macro (making generalizations here but…) is concentrated on the FX, rates and commods side of the ledger as opposed to equities per se. Thus, we’re seeing much of the reversal ‘profit-taking’ or ‘unwind’ concentrated in those ‘pure macro’ assets.
- Equities flows are still being largely dictated by the slow-moving rotation of ‘real money’ as they reallocate portfolios after living under the old “slow growth / slow inflation” narrative. Now we currently see said ‘sticky long-term money’ reallocation into cyclical sectors like financials, industrials and energy, as again evidenced by yesterday’s NYSE MOC with the largest notional sector buys being #1 Financials and #2 Industrials… by a wide margin (“pros on the close”), and has been that way a majority of days in ’17 YTD.
- From a more tactical perspective, with the USD at the center of this unwind, the Dollar weakness has driven WTI higher, which in turn has kept the Energy sector and more importantly inflation-expectations “BID” (per the Quant-Insight macro factor PCA model, higher “inflation-expectations” continue to show as the largest positive price input driving SPX).
The US Dollar index (DXY) has now cracked lower through its 50DMA for the first time since the immediate period post- Election. The 100 ‘psychological level’ also has some technical significance and is very much ‘in play’ now. From there, we would have a looooong way to go down to the 100DMA (98.94) and the 200DMA (97.03).
What can arrest this unwind from ‘metastasizing’ further? The thing that drove the “true” basis for the “reflation trade” long before Trump won in the first place—the continued-ascension of cold hard global data. As listed yesterday, the collective trajectory higher of the data has been nothing short of breath-taking, from global PMIs to Chinese inflation to US average hourly wages and ‘animal spirits’ confidence metrics.
The data still makes a very real case for higher rates in the longer-term, and with it, more US hikes / quicker exits from say the ECB than the market is currently anticipating. Obviously this would be USD- positive.
Tactically-speaking in the ‘now,’ the Dollar reversal lower in this case is helping reignite the commodities bid as well, and with it, inflation expectations remain very strong (see Breakevens ‘strong like bull’).
And of course too, flow will be a massive driver of this: still being told that some in both the ‘overseas real money’ crowd and leveraged fund community would look to fade the rates move at say ~ 2.20 level. In conjunction with the US varietal of real money rotating “growthier” in equities as well (‘turning the Titanic’ slowly), stocks can remain bid over the coming months (not for nothing, but I’ve had discussions with 3 large distressed credit funds in recent weeks who are concentrating much of the ‘going-forward’ within the equities universe—point being stocks continue to have that ‘best place to be’ perception).
It still feels like there is another meaningful stocks rally to come, especially after the “positioning excess” is cleared through this “mean-reversion wobble” period.
* * *
Only then can we begin talking about “the big short” around say a “stagflation” or “real rates” financial-tightening trade.
U.S. REAL RATES AND U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SINCE ELECTION:
Hidden Fees Are Costing Americans Billions
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:58:00 GMT
Fiat Chrysler Shares Crash After EPA Accuses Automaker Of Using Software To Cheat Diesel Emissions Laws
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:34:50 GMT
It appears they were all doing it. Fiat Chrysler shares are collapsing following EPA accusations that the automaker used cheating software to beat diesel emissions tests, and this violated pollution laws.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Authority will accuse Fiat Chrysler of using software that allowed excess diesel emissions in about 100k U.S. vehicles, Reuters reports in tweet, citing people familiar.
BREAKING: EPA to accuse Fiat Chrysler of using software that allowed excess diesel emissions in about 100,000 U.S. vehicles - sources
— Reuters U.S. News (@ReutersUS) January 12, 2017
The stock is down over 10%...
EPA to make announcement on major automaker today at 11am ET/
After a 30% Gain in 2016, Is There Any Growth Left in Chevron's Stock?
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:33:00 GMT
Beijing Not Amused After Tillerson Says US Will Block Chinese Access To South China Sea Islands
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:13:08 GMT
While Rex Tillerson's confirmation hearing as Trump's Secretary of State was for the most part uneventful, several hours into his back and forth with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson compared China’s actions to those of Russia in Crimea, saying a failure to respond had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea. “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed” and that putting military assets on those islands was "akin to Russia’s taking Crimea” from Ukraine.
With that statement, America's likely next secretary of state "has set a course for a potentially serious confrontation with Beijing" according to Reuters, which added that his comments are "expected to enrage Beijing."
Tillerson, the former Exxon chairman and CEO, did not elaborate on what might be done to deny China access to the islands it has built up from South China Sea reefs, equipped with military-length airstrips and fortified with weapons. Trump's transition team did not immediately respond to a request for specifics on how China might be blocked from the artificial islands.
Tillerson said he considered China’s South China Sea activity "extremely worrisome" and that it would be a threat to the "entire global economy" if Beijing were able to dictate access to the waterway.
“This is the sort of off-the-cuff remark akin to a tweet that pours fuel on the fire and maybe makes things worse,” Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra told Bloomberg. “Short of going to war with China, there is nothing the Americans can do.”
He blamed the current situation on what he termed an inadequate U.S. response. "The failure of a response has allowed them just to keep pushing the envelope on this," Tillerson said.
China responded when its Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kand said China has been acting within the limits of its sovereignty. “Like the U.S., China has the right within its own territory to carry out normal activities,” he said at a regular briefing in Beijing. When asked repeatedly about Tillerson's comments on blocking access to islands, China's foreign ministry spokesman said he couldn't make any guesses as to what Tillerson was referring to and would not answer hypothetical questions, Reuters reported.
China's right to carry out 'normal activities' in its sovereign territory in the South China Sea is 'indisputable', Lu said, speaking at a daily briefing on Thursday. He did not elaborate.
Tillerson also said he would stand by U.S. defense treaties with Japan and South Korea. These had been in doubt after Trump said in an interview last March that he would consider withdrawing U.S. troops if allies didn’t pay more for their upkeep. Asked whether he agreed with Trump’s assertion that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the U.S. if Japan and South Korea acquired nuclear weapons, Tillerson said he “did not agree."
"We have long-standing ally commitments with Japan and South Korea in the area and I think we would respond in accordance with those accords,” he said. “Certainly we have made commitments to Japan in terms of a guarantee of their defense.”
Pouring more gasoline on US-Sino relations, Tillerson called China's South China Sea island-building and declaration of an air defense zone in the East China Sea it contests with Japan "illegal actions." "They’re taking territory or control, or declaring control of territories that are not rightfully China’s."
Tillerson also said Washington needed to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, however he stopped short of Trump's questioning of Washington's long-standing policy on the issue. "I don’t know of any plans to alter the 'one China' position," Tillerson said.
Curiously, Tillerson's words went beyond Trump's own tough rhetoric on China. Regional military sources said while the U.S. navy had extensive capabilities in Asia to stage blocking operations with ships, submarines and planes, any such move against China's growing naval fleets would risk dangerous escalations.
Tillerson's criticism of China was not confined solely to geopolitics: he accused China of failing to live up to global agreements on trade and intellectual property, echoing past remarks by Trump, who has threatened to impose high, retaliatory tariffs on China.
But Tillerson also stressed the "deeply intertwined" nature of the world's two biggest economies. "We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership."
Chipotle Adds Another $100 Million to Its Buyback Plan
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:11:00 GMT
Trump Bump Dumps - Confidence Collapses As Inauguration Looms
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 14:59:21 GMT
Despite the latest Small Business Optimism explosion of confidence (in December), the most up-to-date surveys of US consumer confidence appear to be crumbling after the 'Trump Bump'...
The headline confidence index has erased all its post-Trump gains...
"Buying Climate" has plunged...
And 'Personal Finances' are tumbling...
It appears the rose-colored glasses of hope are starting to turn grey.
Amazon To Create 100,000 New Jobs In The US
via by Tyler Durden on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 14:45:57 GMT
With Amazon having an exponentially growing (if mostly part-time) work force, which as of Q3 amounted to just shy of 320,000 employees...
... not to mention a surging robotic support base, on Thursday the rapidly growing internet retailer issued a press release stating it "plans to create an additional 100,000 full-time, full-benefit jobs in the U.S. over the next 18 months." Of course, it is likely that Amazon would have added that number of jobs anyway, simply by extrapolating its current growth rate.
The announcement by Trump's nemesis, Jeff Bezos, coming just over a week ahead of Trump's inauguration, is hardly a coincidence, as Trump's insistence on creating US jobs is by now well-known to most US CEOs.
These new job opportunities are for people all across the country and with all types of experience, education and skill levels—from engineers and software developers to those seeking entry-level positions and on-the-job training. Many of the roles will be in new fulfillment centers that have been announced over the past several months and are currently under construction in Texas, California, Florida, New Jersey and many other states across the country. In addition to direct job creation, Amazon businesses like Marketplace and Amazon Flex will continue to create hundreds of thousands of jobs for people across the U.S. who want the flexibility to start their own business, work part-time or set their own schedule.
Also, perhaps to appease members of the military, Amazon added that it "already employs over 10,000 military veterans, and last year pledged to hire and train an additional 25,000 veterans and military spouses over the next five years. In addition, the company committed to training 10,000 active duty service members, veterans and military spouses not employed by Amazon in cloud computing through AWS Educate."
Where Will GoPro Inc. Be 1 Year From Now?
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:00:00 GMT
More Evidence That Fitbit, Inc. May Have an Inventory Problem
via Motley Fool Headlines by on Thu, 12 Jan 2017 15:00:00 GMT